AAP Project 4501: Mapping, predicting and monitoring ecological change in the Southern Ocean - Future predictions of HIMI demersal Fish

Climate change is already influencing the worlds oceans. The Kerguelen Plateau as been identified as a climate change hotspot. This study aimed to predict and map how climate change will impact the distribution of demersal fishes. This study uses the published modeled (see https://doi.org/10.25959/4GVK-RM21) to take in predicted oceanographic variables under various IPCC climate change predictions. The oceanographic variables are provided by the FESOM model. Hierarchical models of species communities (HMSC) were used to make predictions in the demersal fish distribution for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s. Predictions were mapped to explore the regions of change. This record contains all the environmental data, R code, and outputs from this project. Raw RSTS data needs to be requested from the AAD under the authorization of AFMA.