This record provides an overview of the NESP Marine and Coastal Hub Research Plan 2024 project "Development of regional modelling and risk assessments to inform offshore renewable decision-making". For specific data outputs from this project, please see child records associated with this metadata.

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Australia is entering a phase of rapid offshore renewable energy (ORE) development, particularly in eastern and south-eastern waters. In considering the environmental acceptability of wind energy projects under the EPBC Act and Offshore Electricity Infrastructure framework, methods are required to evaluate cumulative risks to listed species, Australian Marine Parks and other natural values, including risks that arise from construction, operation, decommissioning, climate change and existing human pressures.

This project used quantitative modelling approaches to assess potential impacts and cumulative risks associated with offshore renewable energy infrastructure in the Gippsland declared region. Twelve impact pathways identified by DCCEEW were used to structure problem formulation, risk hypotheses, modelling and assessment, with priority species and associated data needs identified in consultation with DCCEEW and NOPSEMA.

The project applied two linked modelling approaches: species-specific population models and whole-of-ecosystem modelling. Population models estimated exposure and potential effects for priority threatened and migratory species across breeding, overwintering, foraging and migration areas, including risks such as collision, underwater noise, electromagnetic fields, vessel interactions, displacement and attraction. Whole-of-ecosystem modelling assessed broader ecological pathways, including hydrodynamics, sediment transport, benthic habitat effects, displacement of fishing activity, trophic effects around infrastructure, and cumulative interactions with climate change.

Scenario analyses were used to explore how risks varied with the timing, number, location and configuration of offshore renewable energy developments. Model outputs were used to assess the cumulative risks to key species and natural values, and supported evaluation of mitigation options such as infrastructure placement, construction timing, operational constraints and post-assessment monitoring.

The project outputs provide regulators and conservation managers with a modelling framework for assessing ORE-related cumulative impacts, identifying monitoring requirements, prioritising future research, and support evidence-based decisions on risk acceptability and management under relevant environmental legislation.

Outputs

• Species-specific population models for key threatened and migratory species for the Gippsland ORE region [spatial outputs]

• Outputs from Whole of Ecosystem (WoE) modelling [risk-based impact spatial outputs]

• Final project report [written]