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Output of population growth and fishing model for Longspined sea urchins (Centrostephanus rodgersii)

This study created a size-structured stock assessment model to examine the population dynamics and fishing impacts on the long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) on the east coast of Tasmania, Australia. The model tracks urchin abundance and growth through size classes over time, using a transition matrix to determine how individuals grow each year, for nine (9) East Coast Tasmanian regions described by Ling and Keane (2018). It begins in 1960 with no population, reflecting the species' first recorded presence in Tasmania in 1978. The model runs until 2160, but the focus of the paper and results is for management options in the next 5 to 10 years, plus retrospective examination for the past 15 years since commercial fishing began.


The model generates data through the model testing and fitting process. Output files are defined by three 'classes' (biomean, fitsum, nevermean), with each class producing results for the nine different geographic regions.

(1) 'biomean' is predicted urchin density (kg/m2) for each region;

(2) 'fitsum' is the Rstan-produced model fit for each region, where the model provides a fit of an equation for recruitment over time based on a sigmoidal increase function;

(3) 'nevermean' is the predicted/projected urchin density if no commercial fishing ever occurred for each region.


The modelling process is fully described in the associated journal article (in final preparation). A description of files is provided in the 'Lineage' section of this record.

Simple

Identification info

Date (Publication)
2025-02-05T00:00:00

Identifier

Title
Information and documentation - Digital object identifier system
Citation identifier
ISO 26324:2012

Code
10.25959/Y222-HF95
Codespace
doi.org
Description
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

Principal investigator

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies - Cresswell, Katherine
University of Tasmania
Tasmania
Australia
ROR ID >

ORCID >

Credit
CSIRO Sustainable Marine Futures Program for funding support
Status
Completed

Point of contact

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies - Cresswell, Katherine
University of Tasmania
Tasmania
Australia
ROR ID >

ORCID >

Topic category
  • Oceans
  • Biota

Extent

N
S
E
W


Temporal extent

Time period
2022-12-01 2024-12-20
Maintenance and update frequency
Not planned
Keywords (Theme)
  • fishery
  • population growth
Keywords (Taxon)
  • Centrostephanus rodgersii
Global Change Master Directory Earth Science Keywords, Version 8.5
  • FISHERIES
  • MARINE ECOSYSTEMS
  • INVASIVE SPECIES
AODN Geographic Extents Vocabulary
  • Coastal Waters (Australia) | Coastal Waters (Australia) | Tasmania Coast East and Southeast, TAS
  • Coastal Waters (Australia) | Coastal Waters (Australia) | Tasmania Coast, TAS

Resource constraints

Use limitation
Data, products and services from IMAS are provided "as is" without any warranty as to fitness for a particular purpose.

Resource constraints

Other constraints
This dataset is the intellectual property of the University of Tasmania (UTAS) through the Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS).

Resource constraints

Linkage
https://licensebuttons.net/l/by/4.0/88x31.png

License Graphic

Title
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Alternate title
CC-BY
Edition
4.0


>

Website
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

License Text

Other constraints
Cite data as: Cresswell, K. (2025). Output of population growth and fishing model for Longspined sea urchins (Centrostephanus rodgersii) [Data set]. Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies. https://doi.org/10.25959/Y222-HF95
Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8
Supplemental Information
Ling, Scott; Keane, John (2018). Resurvey of the longspined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii) and associated barren reef in Tasmania. University of Tasmania. Report. https://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/495526 Cresswell, Katherine; Keane, John; Ogier, Emily; Yamazaki, Satoshi (2019). Centrostephanus Subsidy Program: Initial Evaluation. University of Tasmania. Report. https://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/495371

Distribution Information

Distribution format
  • csv

OnLine resource
DATA ACCESS - model inputs & output files [.zip]

Resource lineage

Statement
All data generated by the model is interpolated (i.e. not empirical field collected data). The model is divided into nine latitudinal regions based on diver surveys conducted in 2001/02, 2016/17, and 2020/21 (see Ling and Keane 2018; https://hdl.handle.net/102.100.100/495526). These surveys estimated urchin density across various depths, which were scaled using reef area data derived from the Seamap Australia National Benthic Habitat Layer (https://metadata.imas.utas.edu.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/4739e4b0-4dba-4ec5-b658-02c09f27ab9a). The data, while standardized, contain unavoidable uncertainty due to natural variability in urchin distribution. The model incorporates both this fisheries-independent survey data and historical commercial catch records, including the effects of a government subsidy introduced in 2016 to support urchin harvesting in targeted areas. The model simulates size-structured population changes annually, accounting for growth, natural mortality, recruitment, and fishing mortality. It focuses on depths of 4 to 26 metres, aligning with commercial harvesting limits and the primary habitat for macroalgae and abalone. Urchins below 26 m were excluded, as field studies suggest minimal movement between deeper and shallower waters, and management currently is unable to target these depths due to dive fishery using hand harvesting only. Recruitment is modelled as a sigmoidal function, capturing the range extension of Longspined sea urchins through effects of increasing temperatures and East Australian Current dynamics on larval survival. The model was fitted to observed biomass at four key time points: 1980 (near-zero biomass), 2002, 2017, and 2021. Due to the limited number of data points, the model provides conceptual insights rather than precise population estimates. ---DATA DICTIONARY--- MODEL INPUTS • biomass_calc_simple_18m_26mreefarea.csv = Longspined sea urchin biomass calculation per area of reef at each of the 9 regions (original data published in Ling and Keane 2018 plus a new report currently in press). • histcatchdat.csv = historial catch record for the Longspined sea urchin fishery over the 9 regions (Cresswell et al. 2023). • 2.622MaxDL_JL.csv = size transition matrix used in the model. MODEL OUTPUTS • biomean_<zone ID>.csv = predicted urchin density (kg/m2) for each region (1-9). • fitsum_<zone ID>.csv = Rstan-produced model fit for each region (1-9), where the model provides a fit of an equation for recruitment over time based on a sigmoidal increase function. Columns V1 to V8 represent predicted values (V1 = mean, V2 = Standard deviation, V3 = 5th percentile, V4 = 50th percentile, V5 = 95th percentile, V6 = Effective sample size, V7 = R-hat) for the recruitment function parameters, rows 1 to 4 (row 1 = parameter "a" representing the growth rate of number of recruits arriving to each region over time due to range extension, row 2 = parameter "b" representing the inflection point, row 3 = parameter "c" representing the asymptote or maximum number of recruits arrive to a region, based on the formula where the number of recruits arriving to a region over time = c/(1+e^-a(t-b)). • nevermean_<zone ID>.csv = predicted/projected urchin density if no fishing ever occurred in each region (1-9).
Hierarchy level
Dataset
Hierarchy level
Dataset

Metadata

Metadata identifier
urn:uuid/652ec22e-73fb-4eaa-ba6d-a7a6a7ec31d9

Language
English
Character encoding
UTF8

Distributor

Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies - (IMAS Data Manager)
IMAS website >

Type of resource

Resource scope
Dataset
Name
IMAS Dataset level record
Metadata linkage
https://metadata.imas.utas.edu.au/geonetwork/srv/eng/catalog.search#/metadata/652ec22e-73fb-4eaa-ba6d-a7a6a7ec31d9

Point of truth URL of this metadata record

Date info (Creation)
2024-12-18T00:00:00
Date info (Revision)
2025-02-05T16:19:04

Metadata standard

Title
ISO 19115-3:2018
 
 

Overviews

Spatial extent

N
S
E
W


Keywords

fishery population growth
Global Change Master Directory Earth Science Keywords, Version 8.5
FISHERIES INVASIVE SPECIES MARINE ECOSYSTEMS

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